As League One hurtles towards the business end of the season, life is hotting up at both ends of the table.
Only four points separate first from fifth at the summit, but a Battle Royale is brewing at the bottom of the division.
Although basement club Burton are slightly adrift at present, a posse of seven teams is embroiled in a relegation dogfight - which looks likely to be decided by the finest of margins.
Playmaker's Tad Chenery talks us through the seven relegation candidates; their individual struggles this season and their respective chances of staying up.
Burton (24th) - 19 points from 25 games
Bottom of the pile in the third tier, Burton have a hole to dig themselves out of.
The seeds of the Brewers' difficult campaign were sown last May when Nigel Clough left to help the Derbyshire club cut costs in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.
Appointed player-manager, Jake Buxton took over the reins from Clough, but the Brewers struggled to find form under the new man, who was dismissed after defeat to Wigan in December.
Bottom they may be, but the only way is up for Burton and the return of popular Dutchman Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, who won the League Two title with Burton back in 2015, looks to be an astute move by chairman Ben Robinson.
Although Hasselbaink's only been in charge for three games, Burton have won two of them, against Gillingham and high-flying Hull, and with a game or two in hand on those around them, it seems too early to write the Brewers off yet.
Northampton (23rd) – 24 points from 26 games
Northampton currently find themselves second from bottom and without a win in six. Tuesday night's 1-0 loss at home to relegation rivals Wigan was a real kick in the teeth, Callum Lang’s late winner for the Latics deciding both the game and the fate of ex-Cobblers manager Keith Curle, who was sacked after the game.
One of the key factors reportedly behind Curle's sacking was the paucity of goals, Northampton the lowest scorers in the league by some way having failed to find the back of the net in over half of their games this season.
Averaging the second lowest possession percentage (40.1%) and playing the fewest accurate passes per game (161), an instant return to League Two looks on the cards.
The appointment of Curle's successor is obviously a huge decision. Given the outgoing manager's well-known preference for direct football, will the Cobblers look to make a similar appointment or go in a different direction? Sol Campbell and Joy Barton are a couple of big names currently linked with the vacancy.
Swindon (22nd) – 24 points from 28 games
The writing seems to be on the wall for Swindon. After losing star Diallang Jaiysemi to Charlton Athletic on Deadline Day, the winger following fellow Robin Matt Smith to The Valley, fans seem to be preparing for life back in League Two after only one season.
Since Richie Wellens left for Salford in November, things have declined rapidly.
The club have only won four games, with only two of the those wins coming in their last fourteen games. They have conceded the second highest number of goals in the league (53) while only managing the second lowest number of shots per game (9.9).
Conceding at one end and not creating enough at the other is a recipe for trouble.
Wigan (21st) – 24 points from 26 games
It's a miracle that Wigan are even in a position to avoid back-to-back relegations. With unresolved financial problems and no permanent manager, the Latics have no right to be where they are.
Having been able to bolster the squad slightly in January, it's impossible to predict caretaker boss Leam Richardson's team selections, let alone try to gauge what sort of performances they are going to turn in.
Holding on to top scorer Kyle Joseph could prove to be crucial, however. The Scotland youth International has five goals this season, including a hat-trick against Burton, and was linked with a host of clubs higher up the footballing pyramid during the January window.
The fact that the Latics were able to keep hold of the 19-year-old, is a positive in the short term, but may also bode well for the future, as the Latics' board clearly thought they were in a healthy enough financial position to reject offers for their prized asset.
The Latics have got their work cut out over the next week or so, as they take on Oxford, Hull and League One leaders Lincoln - a few decent results there, however, could lay the platform for the remainder of their season.
Bristol Rovers (20th) - 24 points from 26 games
The writing was on the wall in terms of Bristol Rovers sacking Paul Tisdale this week - the majority of Gas fans unconvinced that Tidsdale was the man to navigate the club to safety and avoid the drop this season.
After replacing Ben Garner in early November, former Exeter and MK Dons boss Tisdale won just three league games with Rovers, who only picked up two points from their last eight games under their outgoing manager.
Rovers' general play this season has been pleasing on the eye at times, but they have struggled to impose their authority in either box.
It was a tall order, but last season’s top scorer Jonson Clarke-Harris - sold to League One rivals Peterborough for a hefty fee in the summer - has not been replaced; Brandon Hanlon failing to step up as fans hoped he might, despite scoring six goals.
Only four teams have missed more ‘big chances’ (30) than Bristol Rovers this season, which clearly illustrates The Gas' current lack of cutting edge
There are plenty of positives to take for The Gas, but they need to step on it, and find their shooting boots, or else the dark cloud of relegation could burst on their heads.
Wimbledon (19th) – 25 points from 26 games
Wimbledon’s season could hinge on their recruitment and who they pick to replace recently-departed manager Glynn Hodges.
Current caretaker Mark Robinson, who led the side to victory against Wigan on Saturday, is the current favourite, but bigger names, including Chris Powell and Danny Cowley have also been linked with the role.
Preserving their position in League One would be the immediate target, but with the club having returned to the new stadium at Plough Lane, bigger things could be on the horizon. Whatever the decisions at managerial level, perhaps the Dons most important task for the remainder of the season is to keep captain and top scorer Joe Pigott fit and well.
The 27-year-old has been involved in 58% of Wimbledon’s goals this season (13 goals, 4 assists) with his leadership on and off the pitch vital to the young squad that the Dons have. If Pigott can keep firing, the South-West Londoners have as good a chance as any of staying up.
One issue the Dons must address is their inability to protect a lead. Wimbledon have led on 16 occasions (more than sixth-placed Charlton for context), but have only gone onto win six of those games - the Dons pegged back in ALL seven of their League One draws this season.
Rochdale (18th) – 26 points from 27 games
If the league was measured in excitement and goals per game, Rochdale would be well clear at the top of the table. Dale are averaging 3.5 in each of their games, but unfortunately for them, plenty of that goal count are going in at Dale's end.
No team in the EFL have conceded more goals than Rochdale (54). Despite this, Brian Barry-Murphy’s side have picked up many plaudits for their expansive attacking style of football with only Portsmouth (44) and Doncaster (42) scoring more than Rochdale (41) in League One.
Dale’s tactic of trying to outscore teams has backfired recently and they have only picked up one win in their last ten games. In that time, however, they have had two 3-3 draws, a 4-4 draw and a 4-3 defeat.
A rollercoaster ride is in store for Rochdale fans over the remainder of the season and, although they have clear defensive issues, the attacking prowess of the likes of Stevie Humphrys and January League One Player of the Month Matthew Lund will give them a fighting chance of staring down relegation.
📈 Best shot conversion %s in 2020/21 (top 4 tiers; 40+ shots):
— playmakerstats (@playmaker_EN) February 12, 2021
3⃣6⃣%: 🎯@Lukejephcott11 (16 goals fr. 45 shots)🎯
3⃣0⃣%: Son Heung-min (13/43), Lucas João (16/53)
2⃣8⃣%: Ivan Toney (23/81)
2⃣6⃣%: Matthew Lund (11/42)#PAFC @Only1Argyle pic.twitter.com/nxR3gMT2JE
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Michael Bostwick 77' Ryan Edwards 90' |
